The Complete Final X Greco

What began with an encouragingly-crowded field at the US Open and continued with a compressed but electric World Team Trials Challenge Tournament last month, the third tier of 2023 US World Team selection is now on the cusp of concluding this coming Saturday at Final X: Newark. Each of the 10 Greco-Roman series on the card are as unique as the athletes themselves.

Several of the most accomplished and well-known names in the country are back to try and claim, or in some cases reclaim, the right to wear the Stars and Stripes at the World Championships in September, a tournament that this year will also come attached with Olympic Games qualifying.

But once again, the American program is in the process of witnessing its younger competitors quickly rise up the ranks. This is what the U.S. wants — to reinforce depth by plugging in youth up and down the roster, which is part of the blueprint to help usher the nation back to international relevance in the classical style. A big part of that very mission begins this Saturday and, thankfully, with 10 intriguing high-level pairings that will aid in telling that story.

55 kg: Brady Koontz (TMWC/Dubuque RTC) vs. Dalton Duffield (Army/WCAP)

Their short history reads entirely in Koontz's favor, based largely upon the Wisconsinite's stubbornly-effective underhooks, which provide him with opportunities from par terre. That is where Koontz really shines, as his long reach and terrific leg drive from the mat make his gutwrench extraordinarily difficult to stop. But it must also be said that Duffield is the more dynamic of the two and, if he can somehow clear the ties, a bigger threat to score from the feet. He will need to do that here, even if all he can manage are step-out points. Duffield knows the key to this series above all is defending Koontz in par terre. So does just about everyone else.

60 kg: Dalton Roberts (Army/WCAP) vs. Ildar Hafizov (Army/WCAP)

Without a doubt, the most-anticipated Greco-Roman series on the card by a comfortable margin. They have already battled in three previous best-of-three Trials finals, and all three required three matches. In total, they have competed against one another in 11 bouts, eclipsing over one hour of total match time. It comes down to "The Swarm", aka Roberts and his frenetic, bullying style against Hafizov's clean, confident technical mastery — along with an overt penchant for double overhooks. Roberts downed Hafizov in the US Open final after holding a decent lead but was nearly caught just as time expired. Think of that as a microcosm of what they have to offer. It is going to be intense, suspenseful, and volatile while blending familiar mechanics with unpredictable scores. You know what you’re getting with these two, you just don't know how it is going to end.

63 kg: Hayden Tuma (Suples) vs. Xavier Johnson (Army/WCAP)

Roberts and Hafizov will comprise the most hyped series on Saturday, but Tuma/Johnson has the chance to be the most explosive. If they do not play it too tight to the chest, indeed it will be. Tuma – a multi-time National champion and Trials runner-up from ‘17 – has an unnerving ability to execute bone-rattling lifts without wasting a sliver of motion in the process. Johnson has that in his game, too, something he has demonstrated more than enough since his rise up the Senior ladder. Both share similarities in their overall scoring approaches but betray differences in their setups to attacks. Johnson is a touch more angular whereas Tuma, classically-trained as it were, is keen to go from station to station and let his positioning flow a little more organically. There might be some tentativeness early on. Maybe. But eventually, one or both of them will open up due to the circumstances, which could result in a one memorable shootout.

67 kg: Robert Perez III (Sunkist) vs. Alex Sancho (Army/WCAP)

On the heels of his bizarre, early exit from the U.S. Open at the hands of wunderkind Joel Adams, Sancho logged two crisp victories at the Trials Challenge Tournament to earn his way back to a deciding series. Given his long, successful tenure as a Senior, there is zero question that Sancho is the favorite. An Olympian in ‘21, World Team member last year, runner-up several times prior… It's an extensive ledger. Meanwhile, Perez is either the most disciplined and natural young Greco-Roman competitor in the country, or is tied with Payton Jacobson for that distinction. He has also pushed several top Europeans in overseas competition and defeated a few high-profile American Seniors. Still age-group eligible is Perez, as well, and there is something about the fearlessness of youth that you can't ignore with regards to this match-up. But can he stop Sancho's lift? Will he have the composure to function efficiently within an environment that Sancho knows all-too-well, and one in which he has been successful? Perez only needs to answer ‘yes’ to one of these two questions in order for this series to stand out.

72 kg: Justus Scott (Army/WCAP) vs. Patrick Smith (Minnesota Storm)

When Scott came virtually out of nowhere to make the U20 World Team in ‘21, it was easy to see why: violence. The story has not changed. Every move, every step, every little motion that Scott takes drips with aggression. Three-time World Team member Smith is cut from the same cloth – except with more nuance and refinement. Scott did the admirable thing by trying to bulldoze right through all that in the first period against Smith in the Open final before later prevailing via close decision. Not many try such a strategy when paired with Smith and have it work out for them. Therefore, Scott, who did score actual earned points in the win, can walk on the mat Saturday knowing that he has already faced the chaos and lived to tell about it. The only issue is that Smith was visibly sharper and more in-tune last month at the Challenge Tournament; he is also well-accustomed to being in this position, on this grand of a stage. That matters. Match 1 is more important for Scott here than it is for Smith. So much so that the World Team spot at 72 kilograms might depend on it.

77 kg: Kamal Bey (Army/WCAP) vs. Aliaksandr Kikinou (Poway)

Thus far as an American competitor, former Belarusian World medalist Kikinou has opened many naive eyes to the wonders of "man strength", with the farmer's tan on his arms appropriately complementing this directive. Of course, the wrestling stuff is why this conversation is even being had. What Kikinou brings to the table – aside from glossy credentials from prior in his career – are precision and adjustment. His technique in all phases is polished, if not picturesque; but the subtle adjustments he can make with his locks is the real indication of his expertise. However, Bey (who notched a technical superiority win against Kikinou in the Open final) delivers an important contrast, and it's not age, at least not by itself. When Kikinou has piled on offense this spring, it is mainly because everything leading up to those scores had been completed with near-flawless execution. Bey is not hindered by the same constraints. He does not require a position to be textbook, nor does he need to reset and re-engage to execute. All Bey needs is a small window of opportunity to pounce for a match to be broken wide open. It will be interesting to discover how Kikinou has tweaked his approach to counteract Bey's turbocharged methods, because that is a puzzle not many stateside have been able to solve.

82 kg: Spencer Woods (Army/WCAP) vs. Ryan Epps (Army/WCAP)

The reason why Woods/Epps is an attraction is due to sheer competitiveness. They are both fantastic wrestling athletes and beholden to solid skill-sets. Woods is actually a touch unorthodox and unpredictable in his movements, while Epps is a bit more traditional in how he busies up the ties. Par terre defense has improved in both accounts, as well. This is all nice, and their abilities should render high-quality combat, but neither athlete reached Final X because of their "moves". Rather, physicality is why they are standing on the doorstep. Woods and Epps have no choice but to test one another using brawling tactics. That is how their time together will be spent on Saturday. You might see some arm drags, maybe a few decent attempts at other techniques. But the majority of their static will come down to hard snaps, head shucks, head clashes (inadvertent or otherwise), and who can defend from bottom when it counts. Woods has the edge entering Saturday since he has defeated Epps before, plus he has appeared in two World events (SR and U23). To be fair, Epps is not the same guy he was a year ago, either, as evidenced by his performance at the Trials. Fight in a phone booth they will, a series perhaps more about survival than it is about victory.

87 kg: Alan Vera (NYAC) vs. Zac Braunagel (IRTC)

Oh, to be Alan Vera, who as a resident of Jersey City gets to sleep in his own bed the night before trying to make a third-straight U.S. World Team. Vera has other advantages, as most are aware, one of which is his status as the best upper-weight technician in the country. There is nothing that he cannot do exceedingly well from a technical standpoint. The U.S. does not have another athlete quite like him. He has only faced Braunagel once, a victory by technical superiority from the U.S. Open semifinal. That match did not go long enough for Braunagel to demonstrate his own considerable viability. Which is the key. Braunagel is, in fact, a very serious threat. He must not be discounted, especially not after twice defeating both Rich Carlson and last year's Final X runner-up Timothy Young.

It is easy to just look at Vera, shrug your shoulders, and expect him to tap dance through this thing. Easier still it is to glance over at Braunagel and offer the concession that, although he is rapidly-rising, his time has not yet arrived. Par terre bottom is a scary place to be for any of Vera's opponents, urging one to surmise that Braunagel's only shot to take two bouts is by avoiding that at all costs. An unlikely proposition. Par terre will almost certainly play a role. The x-factor is if Braunagel can maintain position on the feet and find opportunities to move Vera around the joint via consistent pressure (and pressure-release) and limit Vera to one turn on the mat. If he can, there could be drama. If not, the song remains the same at 87 kg.

97 kg: Joe Rau (TMWC) vs. Christian DuLaney (Minnesota Storm)

How might DuLaney be able to disrupt the sparkling re-emergence of one Mr. Rau, who returned by winning the Open and Pan-Am Championships back-to-back? Lighting up the tempo would be a good start. DuLaney has to claw his way into an underhook, or really any somewhat workable tie-up, and do whatever it takes to make Rau reset his feet. Constantly. There can be no hesitation or complacency in this regard, because even the slightest decrease in pace will shift the advantage towards Rau. This is because the Chicagoan's biggest strength on-the-feet is very similar, it is just that so few ever bother to try and give him a dose of his own medicine. They fear "the Plow" aspect so much to where they try to meet Rau on a technical level, an area in which he is just as skilled and comfortable.

As for par terre, DuLaney has made improvements over the course of the past two seasons and does have the capacity to potentially stymie Rau whenever the passives ring. Still, scoring on the feet is what would get the ball rolling, in more ways than one. A score from standing will keep the officials from picking on DuLaney, just as it would keep Rau searching for re-adjustments. Should they play this out in conventional manner, DuLaney is going to be fighting from behind, which is his worst-case scenario. Momentum has a tendency to swing a little more in the upper-weights, and Rau knows how to work with momentum.

130 kg: Cohlton Schultz (Sunkist) vs. Adam Coon (NYAC/Cliff Keen)

Credit goes to ‘18 World silver Coon, because even after defeating Schultz both at Final X: Lincoln and in the Olympic Team Trials finals two years hence, he never took the situation for granted. He understood that a) Schultz was inching closer than the results of their two series indicated and b) it was inevitable that there would come a time when a more physically and competitively mature version of Schultz might severely close the gap. And it happened in Vegas this past April, when Schultz not only closed said gap, he destroyed it on a conceptual basis entirely. Now, was Coon just coming off of a two-year layoff from wrestling? Sure. Is it fair to assume that his timing was off, his decisions on attempts a little fuzzy? Okay. But it is also fair to wonder if Schultz has simply passed Coon by, if at least for the moment. People need to remember that while Coon is the medalist of the two, Schultz was on just as high of a trajectory with which to begin, and has also in the time since earned relevant victories over top international opponents.

While Coon was away, Schultz kept growing physically, personally, and competitively. When we are talking about an athlete of this description, a surprising discovery is not that they have begun to fulfill the promise once attached to their profiles. Coon is by no means on the outside looking in heading into Saturday. He appeared more in the cut at the Trials and all of the characteristics responsible for his previous success are still quite evident. It should be the kind of heavyweight series that fits like a glove for Final X. But things have changed. Schultz currently has more ways to win than Coon does, ownership of the ties among them. Coon has to manage his natural inclination to rely on the over/under and check off to different, safer options and abide by a higher degree of patience, lest he risk Schultz running the table. A prospect of which he is eminently capable, as everyone has now realized in full.

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Jun 10, 2023

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